안녕하세요? 커피플랜트 입니다.
생두가격이 연일 수직상승하고 있습니다. 어제는 뉴욕 C 마켓 가격이 파운드당 2.9 달러를
넘겼습니다. 앞으로 계속 상승할 전망입니다.
3월9일자로 호주 마운틴탑의 사장님이 최근의 생두가격에 대한 정보를 다음과 같이 보내
주었습니다.
참고하십시요~~
Whats going on around the world!
NYC - All the fundamentals are in place for continued higher prices and for a long period to come (1-3yrs min). More recently, allot of speculation about the technical barrier of 280c/lb and how quickly the market would push above this limit. It was suggested if the market didn’t push past this limit quickly, then it might be a slow climb to $3, but if it went through 280c quickly then bring-on $3/lb very fast. Well 280c/lb was broken in the first 2 session this week so the current speculation is a $3/lb market is weeks, not months away! 288.55 close last night!!
Global demand / supply – global demand continues to grow, major US and European buyers have put rices up twice in the past 6-mths and have indicated further retail price rises in the immediate future; specialty roasters in the US have followed suit and thus far this has not dampened demand. In fact to the surprise of many US traders and importers, demand for specialty & estate coffees has continued (i.e. no product switching or downgrading) in spite of higher prices, however demand for small micro-lots has suffered out of Central America. Demand from new origins like Brazil, Russia, India, China and Korea all continue, with growth in many new/emerging markets forecast at 5%-6% in 2011/12 crop year.
A personal example of this new demand, is that MTC is working with 6 new clients in some of these new emerging markets, none of whom were in business 5years ago, but they have a combined annual demand of over 10,000tons p.a & growing by more than 10% p.a. and all looking to buy specialty to top end commercial coffees.
At the same time, global coffee stockpiles continue to be diminished. Both the NYC exchange “certified stock” levels continue to be drawn upon and aglobal warehouse stocks in consuming nations are reaching historic lows since the ICO started keeping records in the 1960’s. There is also a shift in where coffee stocks are being held; farmers are being paid more for their crop, therefore needing to sell less on forward contracts and therefore holding more back waiting for higher prices. This is evident in almost every producing country, where the grower is now starting to determine when they sell and at what price. This trend is ever upwards while demand continues.
Differentials - the big daily movements, combined with farmers holding their crop for longer, plus genuine shortages in some producing countries (BZL in 2011, Costa, Guat, Colo, Sumatra, Kenya), mean that differentials (the price difference between one origin, grade and type to the NYC market) continue to spread. In every market I list above, the differentials have increased at about the same % spread as the NYC; i.e. Costa diffs have double in the past year, so have Sumatran, BZL will likely double form this current crop to next crop and so on. This exacerbates the delivered price to roasters.
Sumatra - is a complete mess, supply is short, quality is sketchy and prices are stupid. This isn’t going to change for 6-9mths till new crop. Prices have risen by about 50c/kg/mth from Oct to now … & I don’t see fly crop landing into AU (from Apr-Jul) for good quality Mandheling or speciality sections under $9/kg in 2011, likely allot more for 2012.
BZL - the 2011 crop is short, some suggesting BIG time short, whilst local demand grows and the “Real (BZL currency)” continues to devalue against the US and input costs (fuel/transport/wages) go higher! Most producers & exporters have covered costs from 2010 crop sales for 2011 harvest, so there’s no in any urgency to sell, especially no urgency to sell to the export market whilst the “C” market continues up and the diffs are spreading. I think that new crop BZL from Oct-Dec this year will be outrageously high right through 2012.
Centam - I think most of the Centam crop is now committed and things have played out as predicted. Specialty & estate lots have been quickly traded and sold against firm diffs, against a market at about $2-$2.50/lb. There is very little left to buy ex origin and very little of these top lots available in the market at all. NOTING that AU will not see this top lots ship until Apr/May/June and arrive in Jun-Oct period. If you don’t have forward fixed contracts, then prices are going be from $7-$8 FOB so add another $2 for a delivered, warehoused, financed product!
Kenya & East Africa – Kenya auction season is nearing a close with another 4-6 auctions left this season, which might bring this year’s auctions to a historically early close. The TOP FAQ lots will be more and more scarce from now onwards & prices continue to break new highs with Auction diffs regularly passing +200c/lb on top of already high NYC market; pushing FOB prices for top lot Kenya’s into the $10-$12/kg category. Kenya coffee supply have dramatically decreased over the past 15-years (now about 25% of 1997 peak production), so prices have matched that reduced supply. The medium – long term question remains about weather farmers (who have an average age of 55-60yrs) will re-invest into the sector or if new younger generation will make new investments into coffee.
These historic high prices for Kenya’s push other east African speciality coffees also higher. Rwanda, Tanzania, Burundi estate and specialty coop coffees continue to reach historic highs as global buyers look to shift from high costs Centrals/Colo’s and Kenya to other east Africa options.
Ethiopia - The ECX has made traceability, sourcing and securing top lots difficult for the past 2 seasons. This is exacerbated even further in 2011. New crop offers are starting to flow (incredibly late), however exporters are nervous as such big daily increases on the NYC mean that no-body is willing to offer contracts unless they own the coffee. This means that Eth’s are selling almost at spot prices, this means that to secure long forward fixed contracts is very difficult and when you get them, there is nervousness that the contracts will in fact be delivered on!
We have started to see offers for TOP lots from all major regions (Yirg/Sidamo/Limu/Lekempte) and all are breaking the $4/lb mark FOB, meaning we will unlikely see any decent quality or specialty lots landing into AU in the second half of 2011 for under $10/kg; possibly a lot more if the past 48hours is anything to go by.
PNG - 2011 looks to be a good crop and exporters seems to be in a consensus not to drive local parchment prices to silly heights as they did in 2010; that sound nice in theory until the buying stations are awash with coffee from May and cash is king where the highest bidder takes all! The big daily movements in price also mean the small niche/specialty exporters are also unwilling to offer long fixed contracts for fear they will be unable to buy the coffee to meet their contracts. This again means that PNG prices are traded spot when the exporter has their contract in stock. I think with a good crop on the trees, differentials will remain reasonably steady this year compared to last year.
The summary - I keep beating my drum … higher prices, tighter and harder to find credit, shorter stock, less quality and tougher to source coffees in the specialty sector. The best way to navigate 2011/12 will be to buy and own as much stock as you can, then put up your wholesale & retail prices fast and by a good amount and get ready for a rocky road!
안녕하세요? 커피플랜트 입니다.
생두가격이 연일 수직상승하고 있습니다. 어제는 뉴욕 C 마켓 가격이 파운드당 2.9 달러를
넘겼습니다. 앞으로 계속 상승할 전망입니다.
3월9일자로 호주 마운틴탑의 사장님이 최근의 생두가격에 대한 정보를 다음과 같이 보내
주었습니다.
참고하십시요~~
Whats going on around the world!
NYC - All the fundamentals are in place for continued higher prices and for a long period to come (1-3yrs min). More recently, allot of speculation about the technical barrier of 280c/lb and how quickly the market would push above this limit. It was suggested if the market didn’t push past this limit quickly, then it might be a slow climb to $3, but if it went through 280c quickly then bring-on $3/lb very fast. Well 280c/lb was broken in the first 2 session this week so the current speculation is a $3/lb market is weeks, not months away! 288.55 close last night!!
Global demand / supply – global demand continues to grow, major US and European buyers have put rices up twice in the past 6-mths and have indicated further retail price rises in the immediate future; specialty roasters in the US have followed suit and thus far this has not dampened demand. In fact to the surprise of many US traders and importers, demand for specialty & estate coffees has continued (i.e. no product switching or downgrading) in spite of higher prices, however demand for small micro-lots has suffered out of Central America. Demand from new origins like Brazil, Russia, India, China and Korea all continue, with growth in many new/emerging markets forecast at 5%-6% in 2011/12 crop year.
A personal example of this new demand, is that MTC is working with 6 new clients in some of these new emerging markets, none of whom were in business 5years ago, but they have a combined annual demand of over 10,000tons p.a & growing by more than 10% p.a. and all looking to buy specialty to top end commercial coffees.
At the same time, global coffee stockpiles continue to be diminished. Both the NYC exchange “certified stock” levels continue to be drawn upon and aglobal warehouse stocks in consuming nations are reaching historic lows since the ICO started keeping records in the 1960’s. There is also a shift in where coffee stocks are being held; farmers are being paid more for their crop, therefore needing to sell less on forward contracts and therefore holding more back waiting for higher prices. This is evident in almost every producing country, where the grower is now starting to determine when they sell and at what price. This trend is ever upwards while demand continues.
Differentials - the big daily movements, combined with farmers holding their crop for longer, plus genuine shortages in some producing countries (BZL in 2011, Costa, Guat, Colo, Sumatra, Kenya), mean that differentials (the price difference between one origin, grade and type to the NYC market) continue to spread. In every market I list above, the differentials have increased at about the same % spread as the NYC; i.e. Costa diffs have double in the past year, so have Sumatran, BZL will likely double form this current crop to next crop and so on. This exacerbates the delivered price to roasters.
Sumatra - is a complete mess, supply is short, quality is sketchy and prices are stupid. This isn’t going to change for 6-9mths till new crop. Prices have risen by about 50c/kg/mth from Oct to now … & I don’t see fly crop landing into AU (from Apr-Jul) for good quality Mandheling or speciality sections under $9/kg in 2011, likely allot more for 2012.
BZL - the 2011 crop is short, some suggesting BIG time short, whilst local demand grows and the “Real (BZL currency)” continues to devalue against the US and input costs (fuel/transport/wages) go higher! Most producers & exporters have covered costs from 2010 crop sales for 2011 harvest, so there’s no in any urgency to sell, especially no urgency to sell to the export market whilst the “C” market continues up and the diffs are spreading. I think that new crop BZL from Oct-Dec this year will be outrageously high right through 2012.
Centam - I think most of the Centam crop is now committed and things have played out as predicted. Specialty & estate lots have been quickly traded and sold against firm diffs, against a market at about $2-$2.50/lb. There is very little left to buy ex origin and very little of these top lots available in the market at all. NOTING that AU will not see this top lots ship until Apr/May/June and arrive in Jun-Oct period. If you don’t have forward fixed contracts, then prices are going be from $7-$8 FOB so add another $2 for a delivered, warehoused, financed product!
Kenya & East Africa – Kenya auction season is nearing a close with another 4-6 auctions left this season, which might bring this year’s auctions to a historically early close. The TOP FAQ lots will be more and more scarce from now onwards & prices continue to break new highs with Auction diffs regularly passing +200c/lb on top of already high NYC market; pushing FOB prices for top lot Kenya’s into the $10-$12/kg category. Kenya coffee supply have dramatically decreased over the past 15-years (now about 25% of 1997 peak production), so prices have matched that reduced supply. The medium – long term question remains about weather farmers (who have an average age of 55-60yrs) will re-invest into the sector or if new younger generation will make new investments into coffee.
These historic high prices for Kenya’s push other east African speciality coffees also higher. Rwanda, Tanzania, Burundi estate and specialty coop coffees continue to reach historic highs as global buyers look to shift from high costs Centrals/Colo’s and Kenya to other east Africa options.
Ethiopia - The ECX has made traceability, sourcing and securing top lots difficult for the past 2 seasons. This is exacerbated even further in 2011. New crop offers are starting to flow (incredibly late), however exporters are nervous as such big daily increases on the NYC mean that no-body is willing to offer contracts unless they own the coffee. This means that Eth’s are selling almost at spot prices, this means that to secure long forward fixed contracts is very difficult and when you get them, there is nervousness that the contracts will in fact be delivered on!
We have started to see offers for TOP lots from all major regions (Yirg/Sidamo/Limu/Lekempte) and all are breaking the $4/lb mark FOB, meaning we will unlikely see any decent quality or specialty lots landing into AU in the second half of 2011 for under $10/kg; possibly a lot more if the past 48hours is anything to go by.
PNG - 2011 looks to be a good crop and exporters seems to be in a consensus not to drive local parchment prices to silly heights as they did in 2010; that sound nice in theory until the buying stations are awash with coffee from May and cash is king where the highest bidder takes all! The big daily movements in price also mean the small niche/specialty exporters are also unwilling to offer long fixed contracts for fear they will be unable to buy the coffee to meet their contracts. This again means that PNG prices are traded spot when the exporter has their contract in stock. I think with a good crop on the trees, differentials will remain reasonably steady this year compared to last year.
The summary - I keep beating my drum … higher prices, tighter and harder to find credit, shorter stock, less quality and tougher to source coffees in the specialty sector. The best way to navigate 2011/12 will be to buy and own as much stock as you can, then put up your wholesale & retail prices fast and by a good amount and get ready for a rocky road!